Sector Spreads#

Credit spreads to TRY Treasury, grouped by sector. For sukuk, the sector reflects the Fund User (real credit-bearing borrower from KAP) — not the Varlık Kiralama SPV that BIST shows as issuer. See CONVENTIONS §14 for the SPV-vs-Fund-User distinction.

Heatmap — median spread by sector × tenor#

Cell shows median spread in basis points (and n = observations). Empty cells mean we have no priced bonds in that bucket. Green = tight, red = wide. Sorted by row-wide median (widest sectors at top).

Empty tenor buckets hidden: 2-5y, 5y+ (no corporate-sukuk observations in these maturities — BIST corporates rarely issue past 1y). Cells marked thin n=1 or thin n=2 are anecdotal: a single trade doesn't make a curve.

Sector Spread Evolution#

4-week rolling median credit spread to Treasury, computed from 212 traded observations across 24 weeks. Weekly aggregation (rather than daily) is used because BIST corporate trading is thin — most days see only 1-3 priced bonds, so daily medians are unreliable. Lines forward-fill across blank weeks (max 3 weeks) to preserve trend continuity; long gaps remain visible. Auction events excluded — they're discrete pricing snapshots, not continuous marks.

Sector Beta to TRY 2Y Treasury#

Regression slope of weekly Δ(sector median credit spread, in pp) on weekly Δ(TRY 2Y yield, in pp). β > 0.5 = sector spreads widen ~half as much when Treasury yields rise (rate-sensitive credit). β ≈ 0 = sector is decoupled from rates. β < 0 = inverse relationship (usually a data artifact at low n). R² shows how much of the variation rates explain.

Cross-Sector Spread Correlations#

Pearson correlation of weekly Δ(median spread) between sectors. Red cells (ρ ≈ +1) = sectors moving in lockstep (common-factor risk). Green (ρ ≈ −1) = inverse moves (rare; usually noise). Diagonal is always +1. This matrix is the foundation of any diversified-credit portfolio construction.

Sector Summary#

TMT — widest spreads#

Transport — widest spreads#

Energy/Materials — widest spreads#

Consumer/Industrials — widest spreads#

Securities/Capital Markets — widest spreads#

Real Estate — widest spreads#

Banks — widest spreads#

Leasing/Factoring — widest spreads#