Inflation#
September 2026 CPI rose 1.84% over 1 month and 29.73% over 1 year.
Notes
Market participants in the CBRT survey expected 2.12% for the month. The print came in below that value by 28 bp.
The latest TÜİK print is for September 2026. TÜİK released it on 2026-10-05. The survey and market readings below have their own dates. Chart tooltips show them. Borsa Istanbul market data on the rest of this site is as of 2026-10-20.
CPI Trend & Policy Rate#
The chart shows the CPI 1-year change and the 1-month change since 2021.
Notes
It also shows the CBRT one-week repo policy rate as a step line. The policy rate changes only on decision dates.
CPI Change and Policy Rate#
- Shows
- The CPI 1-year change, the CPI 1-month change and the CBRT policy rate, from January 2021.
- Violet line
- The 1-year change. Read it on the left axis.
- Lavender bars
- The 1-month change. Read them on the right axis.
- Red dotted line
- The policy rate. It steps at each CBRT decision. Read it on the left axis.
- Read it as
- When the red line is above the violet line, the real policy rate is positive.
- Terms
- 1-year change · 1-month change · Policy rate
CPI by Expenditure Group#
Weight is the share of each group in the CPI basket.
Notes
TÜİK sets the weights once a year, and the groups use the COICOP 2018 classification. The six monthly columns run from oldest to newest. The 1-year change is the latest 12-month change. The last column shows how much the 1-year rate moved from the previous month. Cell shading is subtle: red for a positive value, violet for a negative value. The core and special aggregates below the divider are other ways to cut the same basket. They add no weight to it.
CPI by Group, Latest Six Months#
- Shows
- The weight, the last six monthly price changes, the 1-year change and its change, for each CPI group.
- Each row
- One group. The first row is the headline CPI. The groups follow in order of weight, largest first.
- Below the divider
- Core and special aggregates. They are other ways to cut the same basket. They add no weight.
- Each month
- The six monthly columns run from oldest to newest. Each shows the 1-month change of that month.
- Colour
- Red marks a positive value. Violet marks a negative value. A darker cell is a larger move. Weight and 1-year change have no colour.
- Click
- Click a value to see its calculation.
- Terms
- Weight · 1-month change · 1-year change · Change in 1-year rate
| Group | Weight, % | Apr '26, % | May '26, % | Jun '26, % | Jul '26, % | Aug '26, % | Sep '26, % | 1-year change, % | Change in 1-year rate, pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | — | +4.18% | +1.71% | +0.99% | +1.78% | +1.84% | +1.84% | 29.73% | -1.78 pp |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 24.4% | +3.70% | -0.48% | +0.17% | +1.61% | +0.22% | -0.20% | 27.62% | -6.17 pp |
| Transport | 16.6% | +4.29% | +2.03% | -0.05% | +2.59% | +4.82% | +2.79% | 35.10% | +0.03 pp |
| Housing and utilities | 11.4% | +7.99% | +2.28% | +2.30% | +2.25% | +2.26% | +2.71% | 39.99% | +0.21 pp |
| Restaurants and hotels | 11.1% | +3.50% | +1.87% | +2.11% | +2.28% | +1.50% | +1.41% | 29.53% | -1.63 pp |
| Furnishings and household | 7.9% | +3.41% | +1.99% | +1.98% | +1.70% | +1.75% | +1.83% | 23.81% | +0.23 pp |
| Clothing and footwear | 7.9% | +8.94% | +11.29% | -0.18% | -3.93% | -3.54% | +3.98% | 13.22% | +0.06 pp |
| Personal care and other | 4.5% | +2.21% | +0.51% | +1.04% | +1.11% | +2.39% | +1.08% | 21.88% | -1.76 pp |
| Recreation and culture | 4.3% | +2.31% | +1.17% | +1.00% | +1.24% | +1.87% | +0.72% | 23.36% | -0.07 pp |
| Information and communication | 3.1% | +1.05% | +0.45% | +1.87% | +2.04% | +2.60% | +2.16% | 26.51% | +0.85 pp |
| Health | 2.8% | +3.38% | +0.41% | +1.17% | +10.74% | +0.70% | +0.35% | 43.26% | -0.19 pp |
| Alcohol and tobacco | 2.8% | +0.22% | -0.02% | +3.46% | +1.93% | +6.89% | +0.88% | 31.60% | +1.18 pp |
| Education | 2.0% | +1.35% | +0.83% | +1.72% | +1.32% | +8.62% | +14.19% | 48.62% | -4.82 pp |
| Insurance and financial | 1.1% | +1.13% | +0.49% | +1.06% | +1.01% | +0.05% | +3.40% | 31.89% | +6.81 pp |
| Core & special aggregates | |||||||||
| Core B | — | +3.42% | +2.87% | +1.66% | +1.66% | +1.84% | +2.01% | 29.00% | -1.68 pp |
| Core C | — | +3.46% | +2.92% | +1.46% | +1.80% | +1.81% | +2.14% | 28.70% | -1.37 pp |
| Without seasonal products | — | +3.69% | +1.63% | +1.48% | +1.93% | +2.80% | +2.30% | 31.91% | -1.07 pp |
| Without unprocessed food, alcohol and tobacco | — | +4.31% | +2.58% | +1.41% | +1.70% | +2.18% | +2.38% | 30.35% | -0.90 pp |
| Without alcohol and tobacco | — | +4.29% | +1.76% | +0.92% | +1.78% | +1.71% | +1.87% | 29.67% | -1.90 pp |
| Without administered prices | — | +3.75% | +1.66% | +0.79% | +1.39% | +1.72% | +1.88% | 28.10% | -1.86 pp |
| Goods | — | +4.94% | +1.34% | +0.53% | +0.86% | +1.02% | +1.63% | 24.77% | -1.42 pp |
| Services | — | +3.03% | +2.30% | +1.69% | +3.18% | +3.08% | +2.15% | 37.65% | -2.63 pp |
| Energy | — | +14.40% | -0.17% | -0.91% | +2.30% | +5.46% | +6.25% | 46.11% | +6.88 pp |
| Food | — | +3.70% | -0.48% | +0.16% | +1.61% | +0.22% | -0.20% | 27.62% | -6.17 pp |
Core B is the CPI without unprocessed food, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold. Core C is the CPI without all food and non-alcoholic beverages, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold. Core B keeps processed food. Core C does not. Both keep services. Both help to track underlying inflation.
Official TÜİK special-coverage indices · CBRT definitions. These measures exclude items. They are not seasonally adjusted rates.
The largest contributions to the 1-month change: Transport (+0.46 pp); Clothing and footwear (+0.31 pp).
What Moved Each Print#
- Shows
- How much each group added to the CPI 1-month change, in percentage points, for the last 24 months.
- Each bar
- One month. Each colour is one group. The bars stack up above zero and down below zero.
- Colours
- The five groups that moved the print most over the 24 months. One band sums all other groups.
- Black line
- The actual headline 1-month change.
- Read it as
- The bars add up to about the black line.
- Limit
- The bars approximate the TÜİK contribution. They can differ by a few hundredths of a point.
- Terms
- Contribution · 1-month change
Each bar is the weight × the 1-month change ÷ 100 for one group. The stack approximates the contribution that TÜİK calculates with chain-linked indices. It can differ from the real print by a few hundredths of a point.
Headline vs Core#
- Shows
- The headline CPI 1-year change next to core B and core C, from January 2021.
- Black line
- The headline CPI.
- Violet line
- Core B.
- Red dotted line
- Core C.
- Read it as
- A headline above a core line means that the excluded items rose faster than the rest.
- Terms
- 1-year change · Core B · Core C
Core B excludes unprocessed food, energy, alcohol, tobacco and gold. Core C excludes all food as well. TÜİK publishes both as special-coverage aggregates. This page does not calculate them.
Producer Prices#
Producer price inflation comes before the CPI print. The charts split it into domestic prices and services prices, so the pass-through is visible.
Domestic PPI vs CPI#
- Shows
- The domestic producer price changes next to the CPI headline and CPI goods 1-year changes, from January 2021.
- Violet line
- The domestic PPI 1-year change.
- Lavender bars
- The domestic PPI 1-month change. Read them on the right axis.
- Black line
- The CPI headline 1-year change.
- Lavender dotted line
- The CPI goods 1-year change.
- Read it as
- A PPI line above the CPI lines means that producer prices rise faster than consumer prices.
- Terms
- Domestic PPI 1-year change · Domestic PPI 1-month change · 1-year change · 1-year change
EVDS publishes the domestic PPI (group bie_tufe1yi) as a level index only. This page calculates the 1-month and 1-year changes from that index. Producer prices often move ahead of what businesses charge consumers. The gap to CPI is the pipeline still working through.
Services PPI vs CPI Services#
- Shows
- The services PPI 1-year change next to the CPI services 1-year change, from January 2021.
- Violet line
- The services PPI.
- Black line
- CPI services.
- Read it as
- A services PPI above CPI services means that providers face faster price rises than consumers see.
- Terms
- Services PPI 1-year change · 1-year change
The services PPI (group bie_hufe, 2017 = 100) covers business-economy services without trade, finance and insurance. This is the TÜİK headline definition. The chart compares it with the CPI services aggregate.
Cost Drivers#
Two cost drivers matter most for Turkish consumer prices: the oil price in lira and the exchange rate.
Notes
Each chart compares one driver with the CPI group that it feeds most directly.
Energy Pass-Through#
- Shows
- The 1-year change of Brent crude oil in lira next to the CPI energy 1-year change, from January 2021.
- Violet line
- Brent in lira.
- Black line
- CPI energy.
- Dotted grey line
- Zero.
- Read it as
- If the black line follows the violet line, oil and exchange-rate changes reach consumer energy prices.
- Limit
- Each point is a monthly average. The current month is not shown until it ends.
- Terms
- Brent in TRY 1-year change · 1-year change
Brent crude (USD per barrel, group bie_brentpetrol) times the CBRT indicative USD/TRY mid rate (group bie_dkdovytl) gives Brent in TRY. Both use calendar-month averages of daily values. The chart compares it with the CPI energy aggregate.
Exchange-Rate Pass-Through#
- Shows
- The 1-year change of USD/TRY next to the CPI transport 1-year change, from January 2021.
- Violet line
- USD/TRY.
- Black line
- CPI transport.
- Read it as
- A rising violet line means a weaker lira. If the black line follows it, the exchange rate reaches transport prices.
- Limit
- Each point is a monthly average. The current month is not shown until it ends.
- Terms
- USD/TRY 1-year change · 1-year change
USD/TRY is the monthly average of the CBRT indicative mid rate. The chart compares it with the CPI transport group. The transport basket has a large share of imported fuel and prices that follow the exchange rate.
Survey Expectations#
CPI 1-Month Change vs Survey#
- Shows
- The CPI 1-month change of each month, next to the survey expectation of the same month.
- Each bar
- One month. Red means that the print was above the survey. Violet means that it was at or below.
- Each diamond
- The survey expectation for that month.
- Read it as
- The distance between the top of a bar and its diamond is the surprise.
- Limit
- Only months with a survey value appear.
- Terms
- 1-month change · Survey expectation · Surprise
The diamonds show the current-month expectation of the CBRT Market Participants Survey. The site matches each print to the survey of the same month.
12-Month-Ahead Expectations by Respondent#
- Shows
- What three groups expect for the CPI 1-year change 12 months ahead, next to the realised 1-year change.
- Black line
- The realised CPI 1-year change.
- Violet line
- Market participants.
- Lavender dotted line
- The real sector.
- Red line
- Households.
- Grey dashed line
- The latest market breakeven at about 1 year. It is one value, not a history.
- Read it as
- A gap between an expectation line and the black line shows how much that group expects inflation to change.
- Terms
- Sectoral expectation · 1-year change · Market breakeven
The CBRT Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey (group bie_enfbek) gives the expectation of each respondent group for 12 months ahead. Households usually expect much more inflation than market participants or the real sector. The chart shows this as observed. It does not smooth it toward the consensus.
Where Inflation Is Heading#
Survey and Market Expectations by Horizon#
- Shows
- What the bond market and the survey expect for inflation at different horizons.
- Red line
- The market breakeven, fitted through the CPI-linked bonds. The site does not extend it beyond the observed maturities.
- Pink dots
- One CPI-linked bond each. Hover to see its ISIN and the date of its latest trade.
- Lavender diamonds
- Survey expectations for the end of this year, the end of next year, and 12 months, 24 months and 5 years ahead.
- Violet dot
- The latest CPI 1-year change, at zero years.
- Read it as
- A red line above the diamonds means that the market prices in more inflation than the survey expects.
- Limit
- Premia for liquidity and risk can raise the red line. Survey points count years from the latest CPI month. Bond points count years to maturity.
- Terms
- Market breakeven · Survey expectation by horizon · 1-year change
The survey points come from the latest CBRT Market Participants Survey. The market curve is the Fisher-implied breakeven inflation, (1 + nominal) ÷ (1 + real) − 1. It is a compound annual rate. The curve fits 18 CPI-linked bonds that last traded between 2026-04-14 and 2026-10-20. Each bond has its own observation date. The breakeven can include liquidity and risk premia on top of inflation expectations. The fitted line does not extend beyond the observed 0.8–7.2 year range.
Last 24 Prints#
Each row compares one monthly print with the survey expectation of the same month.
Notes
The other columns show the 1-year change, the 12-month average, the change since December and the index level. Select a month to see which groups drove that print.
Monthly CPI Prints#
- Shows
- The CPI print of each of the last 24 months, with the survey expectation and the surprise.
- Each row
- One month. The latest month is at the top.
- Colour
- A red surprise means that the print was above the survey. A violet surprise means that it was below.
- Click
- Click a month to see which groups drove it. Click a value to see its calculation.
- Limit
- A dash means that the month has no survey value.
- Terms
- 1-month change · Survey expectation · Surprise · 1-year change
| Month | 1-month change, % | Survey expectation, % | Surprise, bp | 1-year change, % | 12-month average, % | Change since December, % | Index, 2025 = 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.84% | 2.12% | -28 | 29.73% | 31.49% | 24.32% | 137.23 | |
| 1.84% | 1.67% | +17 | 31.51% | 31.79% | 22.07% | 134.75 | |
| 1.78% | 1.68% | +10 | 31.75% | 31.90% | 19.86% | 132.31 | |
| 0.99% | 1.36% | -37 | 32.11% | 32.03% | 17.76% | 129.99 | |
| 1.71% | 1.89% | -18 | 32.61% | 32.24% | 16.61% | 128.72 | |
| 4.18% | 2.93% | +125 | 32.37% | 32.43% | 14.64% | 126.55 | |
| 1.94% | 2.18% | -24 | 30.87% | 32.82% | 10.04% | 121.47 | |
| 2.96% | 2.54% | +42 | 31.53% | 33.39% | 7.95% | 119.16 | |
| 4.84% | 3.76% | +108 | 30.65% | 33.98% | 4.84% | 115.73 | |
| 0.89% | 1.08% | -19 | 30.89% | 34.88% | 30.89% | 110.39 | |
| 0.87% | 1.59% | -72 | 31.07% | 35.91% | 29.74% | 109.42 | |
| 2.55% | 2.34% | +21 | 32.87% | 37.15% | 28.63% | 108.48 | |
| 3.23% | 2.04% | +119 | 33.29% | 38.36% | 25.43% | 105.78 | |
| 2.04% | 1.69% | +35 | 32.95% | 39.62% | 21.50% | 102.47 | |
| 2.06% | 2.11% | -5 | 33.52% | 41.13% | 19.08% | 100.42 | |
| 1.37% | 1.61% | -24 | 35.05% | 43.23% | 16.67% | 98.40 | |
| 1.53% | 2.36% | -83 | 35.41% | 45.80% | 15.09% | 97.06 | |
| 3.00% | 3.07% | -7 | 37.86% | 48.73% | 13.36% | 95.60 | |
| 2.46% | 2.27% | +19 | 38.10% | 51.26% | 10.06% | 92.82 | |
| 2.27% | 3.23% | -96 | 39.05% | 53.83% | 7.42% | 90.59 | |
| 5.03% | 4.07% | +96 | 42.12% | 56.35% | 5.03% | 88.58 | |
| 1.03% | 1.72% | -69 | 44.38% | 58.51% | 44.38% | 84.33 | |
| 2.24% | 2.01% | +23 | 47.09% | 60.45% | 42.91% | 83.48 | |
| 2.88% | 2.39% | +49 | 48.58% | 62.02% | 39.77% | 81.64 |