Reference Rates#
Turkish Lira overnight reference rates published by Borsa Istanbul. TLREF is the conventional rate; TLREFK is the participation-finance (Islamic) sibling. CBRT 1-week repo policy rate (the rate set by MPC every ~6 weeks) is overlaid in red dotted step for context.
Recent TLREF Lens - Last 6 Months#
Default view zooms into the current easing cycle so small recent changes do not disappear inside the full 2019-2026 regime chart. Use the 1M, 3M, YTD, and 6M buttons for faster inspection. Latest TLREF is 36.93% vs policy 37.00% (-7 bps).
TLREF - CBRT Policy Gap#
Daily TLREF minus the prevailing CBRT 1-week repo policy rate. Positive bars mean overnight funding is trading above the policy anchor; the latest gap is -7 bps.
Long-Run TLREF & TLREFK Regime History#
Weekly closing observations preserve the full 2018-present regime path without loading thousands of daily points. The recent lens above remains daily.
CBRT 1-Week Repo Policy Rate — MPC Decisions & Surprise Tracker#
Last 20 Monetary Policy Committee decisions. Pre-TLREF shows the average overnight rate in the 10 days before the decision — what the market was pricing as fair value. Surprise compares the new policy rate to that pre-decision TLREF: dovish = CBRT cut more than markets implied; hawkish = CBRT held tighter than markets expected; in-line surprises (±25 bps) are unremarkable. This is the closest proxy to a rates-futures-implied surprise that's possible without a deep STIR market.
| Date | Policy Rate | Decision | Pre-TLREF (5d avg) | Surprise | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 37.00% | hold | 39.92% | -292 bps dovish | — |
| 2026-03-06 | 37.00% | hold | 38.38% | -138 bps dovish | — |
| 2026-01-22 | 37.00% | -200 bps cut | 37.67% | -67 bps dovish | -200 bps; lowest since Nov 2023 |
| 2025-12-11 | 39.00% | -50 bps cut | 39.35% | -35 bps dovish | -50 bps |
| 2025-10-23 | 39.50% | -100 bps cut | 40.16% | -66 bps dovish | -100 bps |
| 2025-09-18 | 40.50% | -250 bps cut | 41.43% | -93 bps dovish | -250 bps |
| 2025-07-17 | 43.00% | -300 bps cut | 45.87% | -287 bps dovish | -300 bps |
| 2025-06-19 | 46.00% | hold | 47.47% | -147 bps dovish | — |
| 2025-05-15 | 46.00% | hold | 48.99% | -299 bps dovish | — |
| 2025-04-17 | 46.00% | hold | 46.00% | +0 bps in line | — |
| 2025-03-06 | 46.00% | +350 bps hike | 44.70% | +130 bps hawkish | Emergency +350 bps post-FX volatility |
| 2025-02-27 | 42.50% | -250 bps cut | 44.64% | -214 bps dovish | -250 bps |
| 2025-01-23 | 45.00% | -250 bps cut | 46.58% | -158 bps dovish | -250 bps |
| 2024-12-26 | 47.50% | -250 bps cut | 49.30% | -180 bps dovish | -250 bps; first cut of the cycle |
| 2024-11-21 | 50.00% | hold | 49.19% | +81 bps hawkish | — |
| 2024-10-17 | 50.00% | hold | 49.20% | +80 bps hawkish | — |
| 2024-09-19 | 50.00% | hold | 50.02% | -2 bps in line | — |
| 2024-08-20 | 50.00% | hold | 49.98% | +2 bps in line | — |
| 2024-07-23 | 50.00% | hold | 48.77% | +123 bps hawkish | — |
| 2024-06-27 | 50.00% | hold | 49.63% | +37 bps hawkish | — |
BIST TLREF Index — Cumulative Cost-of-Carry#
What 1,000 TRY rolled overnight at TLREF since 2019 would be worth today. Pure compounding curve — the slope at any point equals the TLREF rate at that time.
Series Coverage#
| series | observations | first | last | min_rate | max_rate | mean_rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIST_TLREF_INDEX | 1812 | 2019-06-14 | 2026-09-04 | 1000.0000 | 6680.6298 | 2378.1144 |
| TLREF | 1926 | 2018-12-28 | 2026-09-04 | 7.5000 | 52.9941 | 26.0699 |
| TLREFK | 1056 | 2022-06-22 | 2026-09-04 | 7.5021 | 52.0333 | 33.5483 |