Yield Curves#
TRY Nominal Government Bond Curve#
TRY-denominated nominal government bonds, filtered using the explicit Sabit / Fixed and İskontolu / Discounted tags from the BIST instrument master. Older curves shown progressively transparent so you can read the curve's movement through time.
Implied Forward Rates#
What the market is pricing for future TRY rates, back-solved from today's spot curve using compound interest. Read 1y1y = 36% as 'the market expects the 1Y rate 1 year from today to be 36%' — i.e. it's pricing in rate cuts. When the curve is inverted (5Y < 2Y), forwards lie BELOW spot — the math automatically tells you the implied cutting cycle.
| Forward | Window | Spot Start | Spot End | Implied Forward |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y1y | 1y → 2y | 41.40% | 41.53% | 41.65% |
| 2y1y | 2y → 3y | 41.53% | 40.25% | 37.74% |
| 2y3y | 2y → 5y | 41.53% | 38.66% | 36.78% |
| 1y4y | 1y → 5y | 41.40% | 38.66% | 37.98% |
| 3y2y | 3y → 5y | 40.25% | 38.66% | 36.30% |
Curve Slope History (2s10s)#
The long-end-minus-2Y spread, tracked daily. Negative = inverted curve = market pricing cuts. Steepening (line rising) = market re-pricing later/smaller cuts; flattening = the opposite. When the long-end isn't available, we substitute the longest tenor present (e.g. 2s9s).
FX-Implied TRY Funding Curve#
The covered-interest-parity-implied TRY rate, computed by BIST and published directly in the FX swap market as WT. AVG. PRICE/RETURN. This is the rate offshore counterparties would charge to lend TRY through a USD/TRY (or EUR/TRY) swap. Persistent wedge to TLREF spot signals either onshore-vs-offshore funding asymmetry or FX-forward demand from corporate hedgers.
FX Eurobond Curve — USD & EUR#
Government bonds denominated in USD or EUR. Each point shows the most recent observed yield per ISIN across the full history (daily trades are too thin for a same-day curve). Read this as where the external-curve has been pricing.
TRY CPI-Linker Real-Yield Curve#
TRY government bonds explicitly tagged TÜFE'ye endeksli / Indexed to CPI in the BIST instrument master. Yields shown are real (after inflation). Same latest-per-ISIN pooling as the FX curve.
TRY Floating-Rate Notes (TLREF / TLREFK Indexed)#
Variable-rate government bonds whose coupon resets at each period to TLREF or TLREFK. The yield published by BIST for these instruments reflects the current-period margin, not a YTM in the usual sense — interpret accordingly.
Floater pricing comes online with TLREF integration
There are ~513 TLREF / TLREFK-indexed TRY government and corporate bonds in the universe. Their YTM requires a forward TLREF curve which we plan to build using a constant-forward assumption (today's TLREF held flat across future reset periods). Until then we surface them with an explicit "no nominal yield" tag in the corporate bond tables.
Breakeven Inflation Curve#
Fisher-implied inflation at the same maturity: (1 + nominal) / (1 + real) − 1. Computed by pairing each CPI-linker's latest real-yield observation with the TRY nominal curve from the same observation date.
Show breakeven breakdown by tenor (18 rows)
| DTM | ISIN | Obs | Nominal | Real | Implied Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 372 | TRT070727T13 | 2026-06-30 | 40.56% | 5.26% | 33.53% |
| 413 | TRT180827T19 | 2026-07-01 | 40.67% | 9.90% | 28.00% |
| 561 | TRT120128T11 | 2026-06-30 | 40.13% | 9.44% | 28.04% |
| 610 | TRT151227T16 | 2026-04-14 | 39.56% | 7.17% | 30.22% |
| 729 | TRT280628T18 | 2026-06-30 | 40.13% | 6.50% | 31.58% |
| 749 | TRT190728T34 | 2026-07-01 | 39.64% | 8.23% | 29.02% |
| 841 | TRT181028T14 | 2026-06-30 | 38.88% | 8.07% | 28.51% |
| 1016 | TRT020529T18 | 2026-07-21 | 40.40% | 5.64% | 32.91% |
| 1050 | TRT140229T17 | 2026-04-01 | 39.83% | 5.14% | 32.99% |
| 1093 | TRT110429T18 | 2026-04-14 | 37.81% | 5.59% | 30.51% |
| 1154 | TRT130629T14 | 2026-04-16 | 37.26% | 5.05% | 30.66% |
| 1611 | TRT110930T10 | 2026-04-14 | 36.29% | 5.68% | 28.97% |
| 1639 | TRT080131T12 | 2026-07-14 | 39.07% | 5.63% | 31.66% |
| 1793 | TRT280531T14 | 2026-06-30 | 37.13% | 3.43% | 32.58% |
| 2052 | TRT110232T15 | 2026-06-30 | 36.89% | 3.83% | 31.84% |
| 2227 | TRT040832T18 | 2026-06-30 | 35.79% | 4.07% | 30.48% |
| 2388 | TRT120133T14 | 2026-06-30 | 34.43% | 4.68% | 28.42% |
| 2626 | TRT070933T13 | 2026-06-30 | 33.53% | 3.74% | 28.71% |
Outstanding TRY Government Bonds by Maturity Bucket#
| bucket | instruments |
|---|---|
| 0-3m | 396 |
| 3-12m | 1449 |
| 1-2y | 2192 |
| 2-5y | 3105 |
| 5-10y | 1551 |