Yield Curves#
TRY Nominal Government Bond Curve#
This section shows nominal lira government bonds. Yields are annual compound yields.
Notes
The curve uses the Sabit / Fixed and İskontolu / Discounted tags of the BIST instrument master. Dots are the trades of the latest session. Lines are Nelson–Siegel fits, one for each date. A fit is a smooth guide, drawn only across the traded maturities. It is not a zero-coupon curve or an executable curve. For corporate curves by rating group against this fit, see Credit & Spreads, yield view →
- Shows
- The lira Treasury yield curve of the latest session next to the curves of earlier sessions.
- Each line
- One session. The thick blue line is the latest session. Thinner lines are earlier sessions.
- Earlier lines
- They are 5, 22, 44, 66 and 88 sessions before the latest. A session needs at least 8 bonds.
- Dots
- The dots are the bonds that traded in the latest session.
- Axes
- The horizontal axis is the remaining maturity on a log scale. The vertical axis is the compound yield.
- Limit
- Each line is a Nelson–Siegel fit. It is a smooth guide and ends at the longest traded maturity.
- Terms
- Treasury yield at maturity · Fitted yield
Rich / Cheap vs Fitted Curve#
This table compares each bond with the Nelson–Siegel fit of 2026-10-20.
Notes
The fit error is 74 bp. A positive gap means that the bond is cheap: its yield is above the curve. A negative gap means that it is rich. Thin trades can sit off the curve for liquidity reasons, not for value. Roll-down is the yield fall (positive) or rise (negative) when the bond ages three months on an unchanged fitted curve. Carry is the bond yield minus the compound equivalent of TLREF, for one year.
- Shows
- Each bond of the latest session against the fitted Treasury curve.
- Each row
- One bond. The table puts the cheapest bond first.
- Click
- Click a value to see its calculation.
- Limit
- Thin trades can sit off the curve for liquidity reasons.
| Bond | Maturity | Maturity, years | Yield, % | Fitted yield, % | Cheap or rich, bp | Roll-down in 3 months, bp | Carry over TLREF, bp | Traded value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRT100227T13 | 2027-02-10 | 0.3 | 37.10% | 35.94% | — | -739 | ₺41.17M | |
| TRT160431T35 | 2031-04-16 | 4.5 | 38.70% | 37.79% | -20 | -579 | ₺5.58M | |
| TRT270934T18 | 2034-09-27 | 7.9 | 36.35% | 35.75% | -11 | -814 | ₺42.49M | |
| TRT060127T10 | 2027-01-06 | 0.2 | 35.96% | 35.37% | — | -853 | ₺25.28M | |
| TRT140727T14 | 2027-07-14 | 0.7 | 38.31% | 37.76% | +96 | -618 | ₺255.96M | |
| TRT100730T13 | 2030-07-10 | 3.7 | 38.72% | 38.39% | -20 | -577 | ₺2.12M | |
| TRT050527T33 | 2027-05-05 | 0.5 | 37.34% | 37.05% | +122 | -715 | ₺28.00M | |
| TRT130928T38 | 2028-09-13 | 1.9 | 39.56% | 39.35% | +7 | -493 | ₺92.51M | |
| TRT050935T13 | 2035-09-05 | 8.9 | 35.59% | 35.40% | -9 | -890 | ₺946,078 | |
| TRT120929T12 | 2029-09-12 | 2.9 | 39.06% | 39.01% | -15 | -543 | ₺88.86M | |
| TRT150927T11 | 2027-09-15 | 0.9 | 38.26% | 38.25% | +75 | -623 | ₺13.26M | |
| TRT150328T24 | 2028-03-15 | 1.4 | 39.10% | 39.09% | +33 | -539 | ₺14.58M | |
| TRT081128T15 | 2028-11-08 | 2.1 | 39.12% | 39.36% | +2 | -537 | ₺393.26M | |
| TRB100227T13 | 2027-02-10 | 0.3 | 35.00% | 35.94% | — | -949 | ₺137.60M | |
| TRT021030T18 | 2030-10-02 | 4.0 | 37.22% | 38.21% | -20 | -727 | ₺337.36M | |
| TRT051033T12 | 2033-10-05 | 7.0 | 35.09% | 36.20% | -13 | -940 | ₺12.52M | |
| TRB170327T15 | 2027-03-17 | 0.4 | 34.82% | 36.44% | — | -967 | ₺1.77M |
Compare Treasury curves#
Drag marker A (reference) and marker B (comparison) along the ruler. Each marker snaps to a month-end curve snapshot.
Dates, coverage and curve method
The snapshots are month-end nominal TRY government curves from 2019-01-31, plus the latest session. The current month is incomplete. A snapshot needs observed yields at eight different maturities. Taller ruler ticks mark months with a snapshot. Dots are observed annual compound yields. Lines are Nelson–Siegel fits, drawn only across the observed maturities. A fit is a visual guide, not an executable curve.
- Shows
- The Treasury curves of two month ends, side by side.
- Controls
- Drag marker A and marker B along the date ruler. The buttons set B to 1, 3, 6, 12 or 36 months before A.
- Each line
- The blue line is A. The dashed grey line is B. Dots are observed yields.
- Readout
- The text gives the fitted yield of A at 1, 2 and 5 years. The bracket gives the change of A against B.
- Limit
- The current month is incomplete. A month end needs observed yields at 8 different maturities.
- Terms
- Fitted yield
Curve Shape History#
Latest fit (20 Oct 2026): slope -122 bp, butterfly +289 bp.
Notes
A negative slope means that the curve is inverted. A positive butterfly means that the 2-year yield sits above both the 1-year and the 5-year yield.
Fitted 1-year, 2-year and 5-year yields at each month end.
- Shows
- The fitted 1-year, 2-year and 5-year Treasury yields at each month end.
- Each line
- One maturity.
- Limit
- A maturity shows only when that month end has traded bonds at and beyond it.
- Terms
- Fitted yield
Slope (bars, red when inverted) and butterfly (line).
- Shows
- How steep and how curved the fitted Treasury curve is at each month end.
- Bars
- The slope between 1 and 5 years. A red bar means that the curve is inverted.
- Line
- The butterfly. Above zero, the 2-year yield is higher than both the 1-year and the 5-year yield.
- Terms
- Slope, 1 to 5 years · Butterfly
Forward rates unavailable · why?
Observed coupon-bond yields to maturity are not zero-coupon spot rates. Forward rates require dated cash flows and discount factors verified against source prices.
Curve Slope History (2s10s)#
The chart shows the observed yield of the long end minus the 2-year yield, for each session.
Notes
A negative value means that the observed curve is inverted. It does not by itself measure expected policy cuts. When no 10-year point is available, the longest traded maturity is the long end, for example 9 years.
- Shows
- The yield of the long end minus the 2-year yield, for each session.
- Red dotted line
- A flat curve. Below it, the curve is inverted.
- Limit
- The long end is 10 years when available. Otherwise it is the longest traded maturity, at least 5 years.
- Terms
- Curve slope
FX-Implied TRY Funding Curve#
BIST computes the lira rate that FX swaps imply, from covered interest parity.
Notes
It publishes the rate in the FX swap market as WT. AVG. PRICE/RETURN. This is the rate that offshore counterparties would charge to lend lira through a USD/TRY or EUR/TRY swap. A persistent gap to the TLREF spot rate signals a funding difference between onshore and offshore markets, or demand for FX forwards from corporate hedgers.
- Shows
- The lira rate that FX swaps imply, for each swap term.
- Each line
- One currency pair. The blue line is USD/TRY. The grey line is EUR/TRY.
- Each dot
- The average rate of one term bucket over the last 30 sessions, weighted by traded value.
- Red dotted line
- The latest TLREF.
- Read it as
- A gap between a swap line and TLREF shows that offshore and onshore lira funding differ.
- Terms
- Implied lira rate
FX Eurobond Curve — USD & EUR#
These are government bonds in US dollars or euros.
Notes
Each point is the most recent observed yield of one ISIN, over the full history. Daily trades are too thin for a curve of one session. Read the chart as where the external curve has been pricing.
- Shows
- The most recent yield of each US dollar and euro government bond, by maturity.
- Each dot
- One bond at its latest observation. The hover text gives the date.
- Each line
- A fit through the dots of one currency.
- Limit
- The observation dates differ between bonds. The chart is not a curve of one session.
TRY CPI-Linker Real-Yield Curve#
These are lira government bonds with the tag TÜFE'ye endeksli / Indexed to CPI in the BIST instrument master.
Notes
Yields are real annual compound yields. Each dot is the latest observation of one CPI-linked bond. The observation dates differ, as the hover text shows. The line is a Nelson–Siegel fit through the dots.
- Shows
- The real yield of CPI-linked lira government bonds, by maturity.
- Each dot
- One bond at its latest observation. The dates differ between bonds.
- Line
- A Nelson–Siegel fit through the dots.
- Read it as
- A real yield is a yield above inflation.
- Terms
- Real yield
Breakeven Inflation Curve#
This section shows the inflation that the Fisher relation implies at the same maturity:
Notes
(1 + nominal) / (1 + real) − 1. Each CPI-linked bond pairs its latest real yield with the lira nominal curve of the same observation date. Dots are these date-matched values. The line is a Nelson–Siegel fit through them.
- Shows
- The inflation that nominal and real yields imply, by maturity.
- Each dot
- One CPI-linked bond, with the nominal yield of the same observation date.
- Line
- A Nelson–Siegel fit through the dots.
- Limit
- The value includes premia for risk and liquidity. It is a market price, not a forecast.
- Terms
- Market breakeven
Breakeven breakdown by maturity (18 rows)
- Shows
- The breakeven inflation of each CPI-linked bond with its two yields.
- Each row
- One CPI-linked bond at its latest observation.
- Click
- Click a value to see its calculation.
| ISIN | To maturity at observation, days | Observed on | Nominal yield, % | Real yield, % | Market breakeven, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRT070727T13 | 280 | 2026-09-30 | 39.13% | 5.25% | 32.19% |
| TRT180827T19 | 302 | 2026-10-20 | 38.28% | 7.30% | 28.87% |
| TRT151227T16 | 428 | 2026-10-13 | 38.97% | 6.05% | 31.04% |
| TRT120128T11 | 469 | 2026-09-30 | 40.09% | 9.41% | 28.04% |
| TRT280628T18 | 637 | 2026-09-30 | 40.09% | 6.46% | 31.59% |
| TRT190728T34 | 658 | 2026-09-30 | 40.09% | 6.87% | 31.08% |
| TRT181028T14 | 749 | 2026-09-30 | 39.84% | 7.15% | 30.51% |
| TRT140229T17 | 868 | 2026-09-30 | 39.72% | 6.12% | 31.66% |
| TRT110429T18 | 929 | 2026-09-25 | 39.50% | 6.21% | 31.35% |
| TRT020529T18 | 938 | 2026-10-07 | 39.19% | 5.97% | 31.35% |
| TRT130629T14 | 1,154 | 2026-04-16 | 37.43% | 5.05% | 30.83% |
| TRT080131T12 | 1,552 | 2026-10-09 | 37.98% | 5.78% | 30.44% |
| TRT110930T10 | 1,611 | 2026-04-14 | 36.60% | 5.68% | 29.26% |
| TRT280531T14 | 1,701 | 2026-09-30 | 38.57% | 4.29% | 32.87% |
| TRT110232T15 | 1,960 | 2026-09-30 | 37.22% | 4.01% | 31.93% |
| TRT040832T18 | 2,135 | 2026-09-30 | 36.63% | 4.12% | 31.23% |
| TRT120133T14 | 2,296 | 2026-09-30 | 36.06% | 4.56% | 30.13% |
| TRT070933T13 | 2,626 | 2026-06-30 | 33.38% | 3.74% | 28.57% |
TRY Floating-Rate Notes (TLREF / TLREFK Indexed)#
These are variable-rate government bonds. Their coupon resets each period to TLREF or TLREFK.
Notes
The yield that BIST publishes for them reflects the margin of the current period. It is not a YTM in the usual sense, so read it with care.
Floater pricing comes online with TLREF integration
There are ~513 TLREF / TLREFK-indexed TRY government and corporate bonds in the universe. Their YTM requires a forward TLREF curve which we plan to build using a constant-forward assumption (today's TLREF held flat across future reset periods). Until then we surface them with an explicit "no nominal yield" tag in the corporate bond tables.
Outstanding TRY Government Bonds by Maturity Bucket#
Lira government bonds and bills with a mark in the valuation file of 2026-10-20, by remaining maturity. Every yield type is included.
- Shows
- The number of lira government securities in each remaining-maturity bucket.
- Each row
- One bucket of remaining maturity.
| Maturity bucket | Instruments, count |
|---|---|
| 0-3 months | 3 |
| 3-12 months | 15 |
| 1-2 years | 16 |
| 2-5 years | 24 |
| 5-10 years | 12 |