Yield Curves#
TRY Nominal Government Bond Curve#
TRY-denominated nominal government bonds, filtered using the explicit Sabit / Fixed and İskontolu / Discounted tags from the BIST instrument master. The current curve uses the heavy navy stroke; comparison dates use distinct lighter strokes so movement remains readable.
Point-in-Time Curve Comparison#
Compare any two observed month-end nominal TRY government curves from 2019-03-29 onward. Dates are actual last observations in each month; no curve is interpolated across securities. A month appears only when at least eight points have an explicit Fixed/Discounted master classification, so older incomplete cross-sections are omitted.
Implied Forward Rates#
What the market is pricing for future TRY rates, back-solved from today's spot curve using compound interest. Read 1y1y = 36% as 'the market expects the 1Y rate 1 year from today to be 36%' — i.e. it's pricing in rate cuts. When the curve is inverted (5Y < 2Y), forwards lie BELOW spot — the math automatically tells you the implied cutting cycle.
| Forward | Window | Spot Start | Spot End | Implied Forward |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y1y | 1y → 2y | 38.99% | 39.04% | 39.10% |
| 2y1y | 2y → 3y | 39.04% | 38.52% | 37.50% |
| 2y3y | 2y → 5y | 39.04% | 37.12% | 35.85% |
| 1y4y | 1y → 5y | 38.99% | 37.12% | 36.65% |
| 3y2y | 3y → 5y | 38.52% | 37.12% | 35.03% |
Curve Slope History (2s10s)#
The long-end-minus-2Y spread, tracked daily. Negative = inverted curve = market pricing cuts. Steepening (line rising) = market re-pricing later/smaller cuts; flattening = the opposite. When the long-end isn't available, we substitute the longest tenor present (e.g. 2s9s).
FX-Implied TRY Funding Curve#
The covered-interest-parity-implied TRY rate, computed by BIST and published directly in the FX swap market as WT. AVG. PRICE/RETURN. This is the rate offshore counterparties would charge to lend TRY through a USD/TRY (or EUR/TRY) swap. Persistent wedge to TLREF spot signals either onshore-vs-offshore funding asymmetry or FX-forward demand from corporate hedgers.
FX Eurobond Curve — USD & EUR#
Government bonds denominated in USD or EUR. Each point shows the most recent observed yield per ISIN across the full history (daily trades are too thin for a same-day curve). Read this as where the external-curve has been pricing.
TRY CPI-Linker Real-Yield Curve#
TRY government bonds explicitly tagged TÜFE'ye endeksli / Indexed to CPI in the BIST instrument master. Yields shown are real (after inflation). Same latest-per-ISIN pooling as the FX curve.
TRY Floating-Rate Notes (TLREF / TLREFK Indexed)#
Variable-rate government bonds whose coupon resets at each period to TLREF or TLREFK. The yield published by BIST for these instruments reflects the current-period margin, not a YTM in the usual sense — interpret accordingly.
Floater pricing comes online with TLREF integration
There are ~513 TLREF / TLREFK-indexed TRY government and corporate bonds in the universe. Their YTM requires a forward TLREF curve which we plan to build using a constant-forward assumption (today's TLREF held flat across future reset periods). Until then we surface them with an explicit "no nominal yield" tag in the corporate bond tables.
Breakeven Inflation Curve#
Fisher-implied inflation at the same maturity: (1 + nominal) / (1 + real) − 1. Computed by pairing each CPI-linker's latest real-yield observation with the TRY nominal curve from the same observation date.
Breakeven breakdown by tenor (18 rows)
| DTM | ISIN | Obs | Nominal | Real | Implied Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 372 | TRT070727T13 | 2026-06-30 | 40.49% | 5.26% | 33.47% |
| 413 | TRT180827T19 | 2026-07-01 | 40.66% | 9.90% | 27.99% |
| 561 | TRT120128T11 | 2026-06-30 | 40.02% | 9.44% | 27.94% |
| 610 | TRT151227T16 | 2026-04-14 | 39.12% | 7.17% | 29.81% |
| 729 | TRT280628T18 | 2026-06-30 | 39.63% | 6.50% | 31.11% |
| 749 | TRT190728T34 | 2026-07-01 | 39.47% | 8.23% | 28.86% |
| 841 | TRT181028T14 | 2026-06-30 | 38.78% | 8.07% | 28.42% |
| 972 | TRT020529T18 | 2026-09-03 | 38.75% | 5.51% | 31.51% |
| 1050 | TRT140229T17 | 2026-04-01 | 39.73% | 5.14% | 32.90% |
| 1093 | TRT110429T18 | 2026-04-14 | 37.69% | 5.59% | 30.40% |
| 1154 | TRT130629T14 | 2026-04-16 | 37.13% | 5.05% | 30.54% |
| 1611 | TRT110930T10 | 2026-04-14 | 36.11% | 5.68% | 28.79% |
| 1629 | TRT080131T12 | 2026-07-24 | 39.48% | 5.64% | 32.03% |
| 1793 | TRT280531T14 | 2026-06-30 | 37.09% | 3.43% | 32.54% |
| 2052 | TRT110232T15 | 2026-06-30 | 36.85% | 3.83% | 31.80% |
| 2227 | TRT040832T18 | 2026-06-30 | 35.41% | 4.07% | 30.11% |
| 2388 | TRT120133T14 | 2026-06-30 | 34.07% | 4.68% | 28.08% |
| 2626 | TRT070933T13 | 2026-06-30 | 33.56% | 3.74% | 28.75% |
Outstanding TRY Government Bonds by Maturity Bucket#
| bucket | instruments |
|---|---|
| 0-3m | 1672 |
| 3-12m | 12960 |
| 1-2y | 14315 |
| 2-5y | 12679 |
| 5-10y | 8474 |