FLOWMacro & BanksMarket data 2026-10-20

Flows & Reserves#

In the week to 09 Oct 2026, foreigners net bought $203 million of Turkish government securities and equities.

Notes

Non-residents now hold 6.8% of the government securities market. Gross reserves stand at $171.6bn. Net reserves (A.1 − P.1) stand at $44.5bn.

Latest week non-resident flow
+203 $mn
Government securities and equities, week to 09 Oct 2026
13-week non-resident flow
+1,057 $mn
Government securities and equities, to 9 Oct 2026
Non-resident share of government securities
6.79%
of total market value, 9 Oct 2026
Gross reserves
$171.6bn
gold $107.0bn + FX $64.6bn, 9 Oct 2026
Net reserves
$44.5bn
$170.5bn foreign assets − $126.0bn foreign liabilities, 23 Oct 2026
Current account, 12 months
-$42.1bn
sum of the 12 months to Aug 2026

Foreign Flows#

These are the weekly net purchases (positive) or net sales (negative) of Turkish government domestic debt securities and equities by non-residents.

Notes

They come from the CBRT survey of the securities portfolio held by non-residents. Bars show the raw weekly figure. The right-axis line is the sum of the last 13 weeks, which smooths the week-to-week noise. The right panel compares the cumulative flow of this year with the two years before it, by week of the year.

Weekly Net Flows#

Weekly non-resident net flows into government securities and equities. Axes: Week (Friday) · Weekly net flow ($ million).

Cumulative Flow, Year-to-Date#

Cumulative year-to-date non-resident flow, current year and prior two years. Axes: Week of the year · Cumulative net flow, government securities and equities ($ million).

Last 12 weeks ($ million)#

Non-resident weekly flows, last 12 weeks ($ million)
WeekGovernment securities, $ millionEquities, $ million13-week total, $ million
9 Oct 2026+451-248+1,057
2 Oct 2026-485-190+2,113
25 Sep 2026-410+359+3,020
18 Sep 2026-114-110+3,723
11 Sep 2026+151+278+4,753
4 Sep 2026+157-648+4,635
28 Aug 2026-87+329+3,990
21 Aug 2026-1+150+3,522
14 Aug 2026-306+176+2,745
7 Aug 2026+546+2+2,592
31 Jul 2026+164-186+2,441
24 Jul 2026+806+39+1,952

CBRT EVDS (bie_mknethar) · latest week to 09 Oct 2026

Foreign Holdings#

These are the non-resident holdings of Turkish government domestic debt securities, with their share of the whole market on the right axis.

Notes

The share uses the market value in lira. The panel next to it shows the 2-year TRY Treasury compound yield over the same weeks. So you can read accumulation or selling against the level of yields that foreigners are offered.

Non-Resident Holdings of Government Securities#

Non-resident holdings of government securities in billions of dollars and their share of the whole market. Axes: Week (Friday) · Non-resident holdings of government securities ($bn).

2-Year Treasury Yield#

2-year TRY Treasury compound yield. Axes: Week (Friday) · Compound annual yield (%).

CBRT EVDS (bie_mknethar, bie_dibspiydeg) · BIST TRY nominal Treasury curve · latest week to 09 Oct 2026

TL Carry#

A 3-month TL deposit opened in the week to 9 Oct 2026 pays 43.20% against 2.75% on a USD deposit.

Notes

That is a 39.4% annual carry. USD/TRY can rise to 53.41 by 8 Jan 2027 before the dollar deposit pays more. The rates are CBRT weekly averages for new deposits up to 3 months. They are effective annual rates, so carry = (1 + TL) ÷ (1 + USD) − 1, not the difference. Each bar shows what a TL deposit earned over a USD deposit of the same week. The comparison converts back at the CBRT indicative USD/TRY mid 91 days later. The bars stop 13 weeks before today, because those deposits have not matured. The break-even line is plotted at the maturity date of each deposit, so its last 13 weeks run ahead of the spot line. Onshore deposit rates are what Turkish savers are offered. They are not offshore funding costs. The FX-swap-implied TRY rate on the Curves page is the offshore view.

TL and USD Deposit, 13-Week Result#

Realised 13-week excess return of a TL deposit over a USD deposit, by week opened. Axes: Week deposit opened · %, over the 13-week holding period.

Break-Even and Spot USD/TRY#

USD/TRY spot against the break-even rate implied by each week's deposit carry. Axes: Deposit maturity date · TRY per USD.

Carry measures, latest week#

Data table with 7 rows across 3 columns
MeasureValueBasis
3-month TL deposit rate43.20%new deposits, week to 9 Oct 2026
3-month USD deposit rate2.75%new deposits, week to 9 Oct 2026
Carry, annual39.4%(1 + TL) ÷ (1 + USD) − 1
Break-even USD/TRY53.41on 8 Jan 2027. Spot USD/TRY is 49.17.
Carry ÷ realised volatility28.4×USD/TRY volatility 1.2% a year
TL won, last 3 years98%of 145 matured 13-week windows
Worst matured window-42.1%opened 17 Sep 2021

CBRT EVDS (bie_mt100h, bie_dkdovytl) · latest 9 Oct 2026

Reserves#

Gross reserves are gold plus foreign exchange, the CBRT headline.

Notes

Net reserves are A.1 foreign assets minus P.1 total foreign liabilities from the analytical balance sheet. These are the standard balance-sheet definitions. This page does not net out the FX and gold swap stock of the CBRT with domestic banks. The next section charts that stock. The series bie_swaptektarf reports a buy side and a sell side outstanding stock. The stock covers several swap instruments: the TRY currency swap, the gold swap, and the traditional and quantity auctions. The series names do not show, with the confidence that this page needs, which side is a liability of the CBRT. That side would be the one that the CBRT must pay back to banks. A wrong sign would silently misstate net reserves, so the build omits the figure. The raw swap stock is in the CBRT FX Exposures section, so that readers can form their own view.

Gross Reserves#

Gross reserves, gold and FX, weekly. Axes: Week (Friday) · Gross reserves ($bn).

Net Reserves (A.1 − P.1)#

Net reserves from the CBRT analytical balance sheet. Axes: Week (Friday) · $bn.

CBRT EVDS (bie_abres2, bie_abanlbil, bie_dkdovytl) · latest week to 09 Oct 2026

CBRT FX Exposures#

This section shows the outstanding FX and gold swap stock of the CBRT with domestic banks, on the buy side and on the sell side.

Notes

The two sides need not net to zero across instrument types. It also shows the lira-settled FX short position: the VIOP futures, the forwards of the CBRT and the total that the CBRT reports. The total is not the sum of the two parts.

Swap Stock with Banks#

CBRT swap stock outstanding, buy side and sell side. Axes: Week (Friday) · CBRT swap stock with banks ($bn).

Lira-Settled FX Forward and Futures Short Position#

Lira-settled FX forward and futures short position. Axes: Week (Friday) · Lira-settled FX short position ($ million).

CBRT EVDS (bie_swaptektarf, bie_tluzvdov) · latest week to 23 Oct 2026

Balance of Payments#

This section shows the current account over rolling 12 months and how it was financed.

Notes

Each bar is the net figure that the CBRT publishes for one category of the balance of payments. It is the net acquisition of financial assets minus the net incurrence of liabilities. A negative bar means that Türkiye net incurred liabilities or net sold assets in that category. That is a capital inflow that helps finance a current account deficit. A positive bar means the opposite. Net errors and omissions is shown with the opposite sign, so the stack equals the current plus capital account line. The bars add up to that line in every archived month, with no residual. Reserve assets follow the same rule: net acquisition (reserves built up) is positive. A net reduction (reserves drawn down to help finance a deficit) is negative. A separate panel splits the liability side of portfolio investment into equity and fund shares and debt securities. It shows foreign financing only, so it does not add up to the official portfolio investment bar.

How It Is Financed#

Financial account components financing the current account, 12-month sum. Axes: Month · $bn, 12-month sum.

Current Account#

Current account, 12-month sum, billions of dollars. Axes: Month · $bn, 12-month sum.

Portfolio Financing Detail — Equity and Debt#

The bars show the liability side only: foreign purchases of Turkish securities. They leave out the small asset-side flow of Turkish residents who buy foreign portfolio securities. So the two bars do not add up to the official portfolio investment figure above.

Portfolio investment liabilities, equity and debt, 12-month sum. Axes: Month · Net incurrence of liabilities, $bn (12-month sum).

CBRT EVDS (bie_odeayrsunum6) · latest Aug 2026

Corporate FX Position#

This section shows the FX assets, the FX liabilities and the net open FX position of non-financial companies.

Notes

It also shows the short-term part of the net position, which is the near-term rollover risk. The short-term part can have the opposite sign to the total. Short-term FX assets can exceed short-term FX liabilities even when the whole book is deeply net short.

Net FX Position#

Non-financial corporates net FX position, total and short-term. Axes: Month · $bn.

FX Assets and Liabilities#

Non-financial corporates gross FX assets and liabilities. Axes: Month · $bn.

CBRT EVDS (bie_fdvy) · latest Jul 2026